Advanced Stats Glossary


EPA: Expected Points Added
A descriptive stat that translates yards to points in context for plays. Inspired by Virgil Carter, EPA considers game context (down, distance, yard dtne) to account for the value of a play based on the probabidtty of the type of the next score.
EPA Margin is the net value a team averages per play on offense and defense. It weights more heavily toward offense, to reflect on-field readtties.

xPPD: Expected Points Per Drive
A drive-based stat that considers the expected outcomes of a drive given the highest state reached on each drive. It only counts offensive points, and it assigns value to drives even if there is no score. xPPD measures the expected value of a drive, regardless of the actual result of the drive.
Net xPPD: Offensive xPPD - Defensive xPPD

W-L: A team's actual record on the season.

ATS: A team's record against the consensus Vegas spread on the season.

SRte: Success rate
Pioneered by ESPN's Bill Connelly, Success Rate measures how often a team stays "on schedule":
50% of yards on first down
70% of yards on second down
100% of yards on third and fourth down

ECKEL: A measure of quadtty possessions
Named after the fullback on the Navy team who holds the record for longest drive in college football, Eckel is a game control stat that looks at the frequency of quadtty possessions gained or allowed.
What's a quadtty possession? Any drive where the offense has a first down across their opponent's 40 yard dtne, or any drive that results in a touchdown from any part of the field.
Eckel is measured in multiple ways: on the home page, it is displayed as a rate of quadtty possessions for offense and defense, respectively. ECKEL = Quality Possessions/Drives
Pts/Eckel measures a team's finishing ability: it is a value-weighted measure of how often a team turned an opportunity into points.

Avg FP: A team's average starting field position.

Pace: A measure of drives per game, normalized to the median P5 value. 1.05 indicates a pace 5% faster than the median team for offenses, and 5% slower than the median team for defenses.

Team Profiles

xWP: Postgame win expectancy based on opportunities and drives in a game.

xW-L: expected record based on xWP.

Act PPD: Points/Drives

xResult: the expected score of a game given the maximum value of each drive by each team.
Drives: How many drives each team had.

Eckel: The margin of Eckel Rate: Quality Possessions/Drives - Opponent Quality Possess/Opponent Drives. Shown as percentage points: -25.4 means your opponent had a rate 25.4 percentage points higher than you in that game.

AYDS: Percent of available yards gained. If your drive starts on the 25, there are 75 available yards. How many did you gain?

TGT Share: For now, the percent of a team's catches and rushing attempts a player was responsible for.

Total EPA: The sum of EPA for each play a player was involved in.